Southern Africa Drought and Outlook March 2018

In my last blog on the Western Cape water crisis I was having to concede that Day Zero when the taps would run dry might be delayed beyond this year. This was even though Western Cape dam levels had dropped from 27% on 15 January to 21% on 26 February, more or less 1% of… Continue reading Southern Africa Drought and Outlook March 2018

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Climate Change Modelling in Southern Africa Part 1

In recent blogs I have speculated on changes in South Africa’s climate under the influence of global warming and more specifically whether this warming is causing a poleward shift of weather systems. The Western Cape has experienced a succession of drier than normal winters, apparently due to such a shift, no doubt temporary at this… Continue reading Climate Change Modelling in Southern Africa Part 1

Western Cape Drought, Southern Africa Dam Levels January 2018

I have been blogging repeatedly about the Western Cape drought because the crisis has been long looming. Attention is now concentrated on drawing up the plans for when the taps run dry. This article looks at the position of the Southern Africa dams and then at the Western Cape premier's comments on the situation. plus… Continue reading Western Cape Drought, Southern Africa Dam Levels January 2018

El Niño, La Niña and Climate Change December 2017

The latest forecast from The International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University’s Earth Institute is initially startling compared to the one from two months ago in that it applies a 98% probability to an ongoing La Niña situation for the Nov-Dec-Jan period, with a neutral situation only becoming the most likely situation… Continue reading El Niño, La Niña and Climate Change December 2017