South Africa Drought and Climate September 2017

The Western Cape continues to suffer an acute water shortage as rainfall sets record lows for recent years. The (regrettably poor screenprint) graph below shows a solid red line for 2017’s cumulative rainfall to 24 August which is now below any of the 40 earlier years’ lighter lines. The degree to which rainfall has fallen… Continue reading South Africa Drought and Climate September 2017

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Southern Africa Drought, Dam Levels, Outlook August 2017

My 23 June blog on this topic emphasised that despite the decline in the El Niño there was little indication of a La Niña developing (except for the forecast of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography of the University of California, San Diego). In its July update the International Research Institute for Climate and Society of… Continue reading Southern Africa Drought, Dam Levels, Outlook August 2017

El Niño Prospects

The outlook for El Niño has become particularly difficult because of conflicting signals. Columbia University’s International Research Institute for Climate and Society reports that computer models are predicting a strong El Niño, in particular because of the above average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern tropical Pacific, or what has become known as a… Continue reading El Niño Prospects

Southern Africa Climate, Outlook and Dam Levels Update May 2017

The northern part of the region has moved into its dry season with a fairly sharp cutoff in our Gauteng province but with Free State dam levels looking good after above average summer rains. In the water short southern parts rains have not set in sufficiently to impact significantly on dam levels. Columbia University’s International… Continue reading Southern Africa Climate, Outlook and Dam Levels Update May 2017

Southern Africa Climate, Outlook and Dam Levels

Good rains have occurred in the northern part of the region while drought conditions continue in the south. This has allowed dam levels to increase rapidly in one part of the region while reaching dangerously low levels in other parts. Columbia University’s International Research Institute for Climate and Society reports that mid March conditions in… Continue reading Southern Africa Climate, Outlook and Dam Levels